Stocks & Bonds
Charles Nenner Research
Stocks should peak in mid-2013 and fall until about 2020. Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years. He bases his conclusions entirely on cycle research. He expects the Dow to fall to around 5,000 by 2018 – 2020.
Kress Cycles (Clif Droke)
The major 120 year cycle plus all minor cycles trend down into late 2014. The stock market should decline hard into late 2014.
Elliott Wave (Robert Prechter)
He believes that the stock market has peaked and has entered a generational bear-market. He anticipates a crash low in the market around 2016 – 2017.
Market Energy Waves
He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and will cycle down for 2013 – 2016. “… the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.
His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015. The decline into January 2020 should be severe. He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.
Cycles per Charles Hugh Smith
He discusses four long-term cycles that bottom in the 2010 – 2020 period. They are: Credit expansion/contraction cycle, Price inflation/wage cycle, Generational cycle, and Peak oil extraction cycle.
Harry Dent – Demographics
Stock prices should drop, on average, for the balance of this decade, perhaps as low as 3,300 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Demographic cycles in the United States (and elsewhere) indicate a contraction in real terms for most of this decade.
Sun Spot Cycles
They are due to peak in the summer of 2013 and decline into 2019. Market tops often occur at or near peaks in sun spots. This is an approximate 10 – 13 year cycle. Economic and political upheavals tend to occur at or near the peak of sun spot cycles.
1987, 2000, and 2013 marked stock market highs, all 13 years apart.
His research shows that the world-wide tendency to fight major wars rises and falls over time. He currently projects a peak about 2020 with rising war fever from 2013 until 2020. There is no shortage of possible war zones. As conditions worsen during the balance of this decade, nations will be inclined to distract and control their populace via wars, increased government control, and management of the economy.
Long-Term War Cycles
1780, 1860, 1940, 2020? About every 80 years there has been a major war involving the United States.
Gold & Silver
He expected a major low in gold price cycles in March or April of 2013; however, June provided an even lower low. He still expects gold to rally much higher from here. “Gold is going to and through $3,500 in the not too distant future.” He has decades of experience in the markets and has successfully understood and traded gold since the 1970s.
He uses Elliott Wave theory to analyze gold. His first major target for gold is $4,500, for Intermediate wave III of MAJOR THREE. Wave IV will be a correction and wave V will take gold much higher thereafter.
Charles Nenner Research
He expects gold to bottom about now and rally substantially from here. He called the top in gold two years ago. He called for a bottom about now in the $1,300s. He expects a large rally that lasts several years.
He projects a low for gold in June 2013 followed by a substantial rally until about 2020, possibly to $10,000.
Gold is likely to be weak until after October 2015 and then move strongly higher into January 2020. Gold will rise primarily due to the collapse of paper currencies in the period from 2015 – 2020.
This comet will be visible in October and November 2013 – it is expected to be the brightest comet in years, perhaps many decades. Highly visible comets often indicate sudden changes in leadership, political systems, and financial systems. Possible changes include the failure or redesign of the Euro, a dollar crash, assassination of a major leader, impeachment, derivative implosion, martial law, international war, and a major economic default.
JR Nyquist on global cooling and food production
He discusses long-term solar output cycles. He anticipates that an approximately 200 year cycle in solar output will reduce average temperatures, available water, and crop yields. He expects higher food prices and famine during the next decade. The last cold cycle low was around the time Napoleon marched into Russia.
100 year anniversaries
1913 was an important year. It marked the beginning of the Federal Reserve and the income tax in the US. 2013 has already shown that essentially all digital communications and internet activity are tracked and recorded by the government. It has also marked the authorization for military control and martial law in the United States. Further, bank account and brokerage confiscations (bail-ins) have already occurred; and more “bail-ins” are likely. 2013 could mark the beginning of what might evolve into WWIII – starting in the Middle East.